Live market data
What Rates Are Actually Doing
These are averages from real locked loans across the country, not a teaser rate with four conditions in the footnote. I don't quote rates on a website. I do show you the market honestly.
Every mortgage site shows you a rate. Almost none of them show you a rate you can actually get.
The number in the ad is usually the best case: perfect credit, big down payment, a specific loan size, points paid up front, and a lock period that suits the lender. By the time your file is real, the number has moved.
So here's the market instead, from loans that actually closed.
These are market averages from Optimal Blue’s index of actual locked loans across the country. They are not my rates, not an offer, and not a quote. Your rate depends on your credit, your loan-to-value, the property, the program and the day. Call me for a real number.
How to read this
Rate Indices is where the market sat today by loan type. Credit and LTV breaks it down by credit band and loan-to-value, which is where you find out what your score is really costing you. Rate Trends is the direction, which matters more than the level if you're deciding whether to wait.
Watch the spread between conforming and jumbo. When jumbo prices below conforming, big-loan borrowers in Orange County get an advantage most of them never hear about.
What a bank's rate has in it
This is the part I know from the inside, because I spent seventeen years at one.
A retail bank's rate isn't just the cost of money. It carries the branch, the overhead, the marketing, and a margin decided long before anyone looked at your file. You aren't being priced. You're being quoted a shelf price.
I buy wholesale. The margin is disclosed on your Loan Estimate, and you can see it. Is a mortgage broker worth it has the whole argument with the numbers.
What actually moves your rate
- Your credit score, in bands. The jump from 719 to 720 is worth real money
- Loan-to-value. 80% is a cliff, not a slope
- Occupancy. A rental prices well above a home you live in
- Loan size. Both very small and very large loans price differently
- Points. Any rate can be bought down. The question is whether it pays back before you sell
- Lock period. A 60-day lock costs more than a 15-day one
Six variables, and an advertised rate assumes a perfect answer to all six.
If you're waiting for rates to drop
Two honest thoughts.
You can't time it. Nobody called the last three turns, including the people paid to.
You don't have to. If you buy now and rates fall later, you refinance. If you wait and prices rise, you've lost more than the rate saved you. And a seller today will often fund a temporary buydown to get their price, which gets you a lower payment now without betting on the market.
Related
- Temporary buydowns — someone else pays to cut your rate
- Housing market by ZIP — what values are doing near you
- Home purchase loans
Get a real number instead of an average
Questions people ask
Is this the rate I would get?
No. This is a national average of loans that actually locked, across all credit profiles, loan sizes and property types. Your rate will be better or worse depending on your credit score, your loan-to-value, the property, the program and what day you lock. It's a thermometer, not a quote.
Why don't you just advertise a rate?
Because any rate small enough to be eye-catching comes with conditions that don't apply to most people. Advertised rates also trigger disclosure rules that most websites quietly ignore. I'd rather show you the real market and then give you an actual number for your actual file.
Where does this data come from?
The Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices. Optimal Blue's pricing engine sits behind a large share of the loans locked in this country, so the index reflects transactions rather than advertisements.
Why is the jumbo rate sometimes lower than conforming?
It happens. Jumbo loans aren't sold to Fannie or Freddie, so they're priced by the bank holding them. When banks want that business, jumbo can price below conforming. It's one of the things people get wrong about big loans.
How do I get my actual rate?
Send me your numbers. I'll shop it across 175+ lenders and come back with a written comparison showing the rate, the fees and the APR on each option, so you can see the whole cost and not just the headline.